UC Santa Barbara

Global changes, including climate and land use changes, can result in significant impact to water resources. Planning for these changes requires making projections, even in the face of considerable uncertainties, to make informed management and policy decisions. A number of climate change scenarios and projections at global and regional levels are available that can be used to predict the likely range of outcomes. However, there is a need to translate these projections into potential implications for hydrology and water quality. Since there are dozens of hydrologic models, there is a need to evaluate them critically and to develop guidance regarding selecting the appropriate model for a given objective. We conducted a review of 21 different models commonly used for modeling hydrology (8), water quality (6) or both (7) at the watershed scale. Six of the models are strictly water quality models that depend on a separate model or observed data for hydrology. Seven additional models are useful for estimating hydrology and water quality simultaneously. The models were then evaluated based on ten different criteria, including functionality, scope, ability to model extreme events, data requirements, availability, and technical support, among others. The models were ranked Low, Medium or High in each of the criteria. The results indicate that three hydrologic models, MIKE-SHE, HEC-HMS, and MODHMS, as well as two full hydrology and water quality models, SWAT and WARMF, stand out in terms of functionality, availability, applicability to a wide range of watersheds and scales, ease of implementation, and availability of support. Modelers should carefully select the best model for their application, in part guided by the criteria discussed herein.