UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies

California has a goal to reach carbon neutrality in the transportation sector by 2045. As the vehicle fleet becomes cleaner and greener, the way consumers, firms, and businesses spend money on transportation will shift, driving changes in employment in fossil fuel vehicle and ZEV-related sectors. The paper explains the fundamental relationship between how consumers spend their money and consequent changes in the workforce, characterize Californians’ current transportation-related spending, and forecast changes in these spending patterns that will drive employment changes across transportation-related supply chains between now and 2045. We assess three key categories of expenditures (vehicle purchase, fuel, and maintenance costs) segmented by four general vehicle classifications. We find that if California achieves carbon neutrality in the transportation sector by 2045, California will spend $23.3 billion less across the three key transportation expenditure categories in 2045 compared to 2020, with overall expenditures falling from $175.4 billion to $152.1 billion. All three key expenditure categories will be lower in 2045 than in 2020. By 2045, all new vehicle purchases will be made on ZEVs, and the majority of fuel and maintenance costs will be made on ZEVs. Understanding how expenditures will change can help identify which industries and occupations will be highly impacted by transportation decarbonization. This can inform how private and public agencies manage this transition to ensure it produces equitable, high quality jobs, especially for those workers whose jobs may be eliminated.