Climate Science and Policy

Since 2001, after decades of a steady rate of magnitude ≥ 3 earthquakes in the United States, the annual number of earthquakes has increased exponentially from approximately 20 events per year in 2001 to up to 188 events per year in 2011. This increase is suspected to be human-induced. Modern physics tools, such as Bayesian Data Analysis, can elucidate processes that trigger seismicity, both anthropogenic and otherwise. This study introduces analytical methods and examines anthropogenic processes, such as Oil-Gas operations and CO2 injections, which can trigger seismicity. In recent years, statistical modeling of fluid injection and extraction has been enabled using Bayesian inference. Provided the well established interaction between San Andreas Fault (SAF) and nearby lake fillings (e.g., Salton Sea), recently proposed CO2 injection projects near this fault is chosen as a system of interest. Shedding light on the possibility of unintentional CO2 induced seismicity near this fault, Bayesian inference is used in analysis of such complex system, which could aid planning and even short-term forecasting. Engaging the communities and Implementing physics-informed data assimilation technologies discussed herein is recommended as a policy strategy.