Climate Science and Policy

The relationship between electricity consumption and temperature has generally been modeled as U-shaped. At higher temperatures, customers use more electricity for cooling, and at lower temperatures, customers use more electricity for heating. Climate change is exacerbating heat stress and heat waves, with California expected to warm by as much as 4-7⁰C by the end of the century (Pierce et al., 2018) and heat waves increasing in frequency, duration, season length, and intensity (US EPA, 2021). Thus, electricity consumption is likely to increase by a similar margin by the end of the century in response to rising heat stress. California is also experiencing an affordability crisis for electricity, with the second-highest electricity rates in the country and growth outpacing the national average (Petek, 2025). Customers will need to use an increasing amount of electricity to deal with climate change, yet prices are too high for low-income and vulnerable customers to afford to use more electricity. This study analyzes the relationship between electricity consumption and daily maximum temperature in California between 2012-2024, finding a strong, U-shaped relationship that varies by utility, income, region, age, and predominant race at the zip code level, with significant seasonal and temporal trends. Building on these findings, this study develops a novel framework to address electricity affordability, titled Universal Baseline Electricity (“UBE”). California has enacted several policies to address electricity affordability, but none have gone as far as the UBE framework. UBE’s core framework includes the provision of a free baseline amount of electricity during extreme weather, a premium on high usage during extreme weather, seasonal bans on disconnection of customers, and a tiered rate system modeled on progressive taxes. Though there are significant challenges to implementing the UBE framework, all four core elements can build upon existing foundations within California’s electricity policies.