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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Decision Making Under Uncertainty: An Assessment of Adaptation Strategies and Scenario Development for Resource Managers


This paper contributes an analysis of natural resource management tools for planning for climate change, including a case study on scenario planning, to the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California. It presents the findings of a literature review on decision‐ making tools for climate change planning and consultations with adaptation planners, resource managers, and scientists. In addition, it discusses lessons learned from a one‐day climate change scenario planning workshop with resource managers and scientists working in Marin County that focused on analyzing the scenario approach in the context of other approaches. It also describes cases of public agency and private conservation non‐profit organizations working on resource management problems under climate change.

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