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The Impact of Natural Resources on Civil Conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has grappled with persistent conflict throughout its history, with recent outbreaks highlighting the need for a solution. This paper investigates the greed hypothesis, which holds that armed non-state actors are motivated by the profitability of natural resources to launch uprisings against the state. Utilizing regression analysis, we investigate the correlation between the prices of various rare metals, in relation to deaths due to armed conflict. Our findings reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between the price of gold and armed conflict-related deaths, particularly in the Kivu provinces and post-2003. Conversely, we observe a decline in conflict-related deaths outside of the Kivu provinces in response to increases in copper prices prior to 1997. The implications of this result are aligned with the greed theory, suggesting that non-state actors are, at least in part, motivated by the profitability of natural resources. The findings have significant implications for policy interventions, highlighting the need for more specialized and informed approaches.

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