UC Davis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate overall and subgroup efficacy of an estetrol (E4) 15 mg drospirenone (DRSP) 3 mg oral contraceptive in a 24/4-day regimen. STUDY DESIGN: We pooled efficacy outcomes from 2 pivotal phase 3 contraceptive trials with E4/DRSP conducted in the United States/Canada and Europe/Russia. We assessed Pearl Index (PI; pregnancies per 100 participant-years) and 13-cycle life-table pregnancy rates in at-risk cycles (confirmed intercourse and no other contraceptive use) among participants 16 to 35 years. We calculated PI by age and further subcategorization (contraceptive history and body mass index [BMI]). We performed multivariable analysis using Cox regression to assess impact of potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Analyses included 3027 participants, of whom 451 (14.9%) had a BMI ≥30 kg/m². The pooled PI was 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.04-2.16) and the 13-cycle life-table pregnancy rate was 1.28% (0.83%-1.73%). We calculated unadjusted pooled PI in participants 16 to 25 years and 26 to 35 years of 1.61 (0.94-2.57) and 1.43 (0.78-2.40), respectively; in new starters and switchers of 1.88 (1.09-3.00) and 1.24 (0.68-2.08), respectively; and by BMI <25 kg/m², 25 to 29.9 kg/m², and ≥30 kg/m² of 1.14 (0.64-1.88), 2.19 (1.05-4.03), and 2.27 (0.83-4.94), respectively. In multivariable analysis, we found associations of prior pregnancy (hazard ratio [HR] 3.61[1.56-8.38]), Black race (HR 4.61[1.97-10.80]), age 16 to 25 years (HR 2.37[1.09-5.15]) and compliance <99% of expected pills (HR 4.21[2.04-8.66]) with conception. CONCLUSION: E4/DRSP is an effective oral contraceptive overall and across subgroups stratified by age, contraceptive history, and BMI. Other than compliance, predictors of contraceptive failure are nonmodifiable. IMPLICATIONS STATEMENT: Pooled results from two phase 3 trials demonstrate high contraceptive efficacy of the novel estetrol-drospirenone oral contraceptive. Several non-modifiable risk factors, including prior pregnancy, race, and age, are associated with higher pregnancy risk. Additional research is needed to better understand predictors of combined oral contraceptive failure.