Skip to main content
eScholarship
Open Access Publications from the University of California

The Kelly Criterion and the Stock Market

Abstract

The purpose of this expository note is to describe the Kelly criterion, a theory of optimal resource apportionment during favorable gambling games, with special attention to an application in the U.S. stock market.

By a "favorable game" we mean one in which there exists a strategy such that Pr(limn --> ∞ Xn = +∞) > 0, where Xn is the player's capital after n trials. We shall first discuss the case of discrete binomial gambling games and then extend the discussion to continuous gambling games.