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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Distribution Theory for the Studentized Mean for Long, Short, and Negative Memory Time Series

  • Author(s): McElroy, Tucker S.;
  • Politis, Dimitris N.
  • et al.
Creative Commons 'BY' version 3.0 license

We consider the problem of estimating the variance of the partial sums of a stationary time series that has either long memory, short memory, negative/intermediate memory, or is the first-difference of such a process. The rate of growth of this variance depends crucially on the type of memory, and we present results on the behavior of tapered sums of sample autocovariances in this context when the bandwidth vanishes asymptotically. We also present asymptotic results for the case that the bandwidth is a fixed proportion of sample size, extending known results to the case of flat-top tapers. We adopt the fixed proportion bandwidth perspective in our empirical section, presenting two methods for estimating the limiting critical values - both the subsampling method and a plug-in approach. Extensive simulation studies compare the size and power of both approaches as applied to hypothesis testing for the mean. Both methods perform well - although the subsampling method appears to be better sized - and provide a viable framework for conducting inference for the mean. In summary, we supply a unified asymptotic theory that covers all different types of memory under a single umbrella.

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