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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Almost-Objective Uncertainty

  • Author(s): Machina, Mark J
  • et al.

Every subjective state space with sufficient (e.g., Euclidean) structure contains almost-objective events that approximate, and in the limit attain, the standard properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether they are expected utility/non-expected utility, state-independent/state-dependent, or probabilistically sophisticated/non-probabilistically sophisticated. These properties include well-defined and unanimously agreed-upon revealed likelihoods that are independent of the realization of other subjective events, probabilistic sophistication over almost-objective acts, and linearity of state-independent or state-dependent expected utility preferences over almost-objective acts and almost-objective mixtures of subjective acts. Many real-world randomization devices are based on events of this form.

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