UC Santa Barbara

Recent climatic shifts and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon have likely ushered the region into a new ecological and climatic regime with profound implications for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and local communities. This dissertation employs a comprehensive approach to address Brazil's National Adaptation Plan goals by integrating climate modeling and evaluation, field interviews, and risk mapping methodologies across three interrelated studies.The first paper evaluates the performance of thirteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating precipitation within the Amazon River Basin. The study assesses model efficacy in capturing precipitation variability using spatial pattern mapping, Taylor diagram analysis, and empirical orthogonal function analysis. It provides insights crucial for agricultural and hydrological planning. The second study delves into the adaptation strategies of small-scale farmers in Rondônia, highlighting the transformation in agricultural practices due to changing climate conditions. Through qualitative interviews, it explores how increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns drive shifts from traditional crops to cattle ranching and milk production. It emphasizes the need for policy interventions that support sustainable farming and climate resilience. Lastly, the third paper investigates the climatic impacts of deforestation in unprotected areas of the Amazon. Advanced climate-land surface modeling quantifies temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration changes, mapping out the risks to agricultural productivity. This risk mapping integrates climatic, agricultural, demographic, and socioeconomic data to identify heightened-risk municipalities, advocating for more robust conservation measures. These studies contribute a deeper understanding of the Brazilian Amazon's relationships between climate change and human-environmental systems. The findings underline the importance of integrating scientific research with policymaking to mitigate climate change's impacts and support local communities' sustainability.