UC Berkeley

Demographic analysis clarifies political issues in the collapse of Yugoslavia. In most regions, 1961-1991, ethnic diversity (estimated by informational entropy) increased and segregation (estimated by Theil’s H) decreased. In a few regions there was a reversal in 1991 as migration flows or presentations of self perhaps changed in anticipation of war. The analysis strengthens refutations of the view that long standing ethnic hatreds were the root cause of the Yugoslav collapse and supports analyses that attribute collapse to general economic crisis, economic competition between regions, and failures at the peak of government.