Cliodynamics

This article critically examines Peter Turchin’s cliodynamic approach to state origins as presented in The Great Holocene Transformation (2025). It analyzes key factors of state formation—warfare, demographic pressure, technological innovation, and moralizing religion—and compares Turchin’s conclusions with alternative databases, notably the University of Pittsburgh’s Chiefdom Datasets Project. Special attention is given to military revolutions, including the emergence of nomadic empires, the development of cavalry, and the introduction of the decimal system among steppe nomads. The article also discusses the ambivalent nature of the state as both a constructive and coercive institution, and critically examines the bureaucratic criterion of statehood, which has provoked debates about the classification of ancient and medieval polities. To resolve these terminological difficulties, the author proposes viewing civilization as a process—an approach that accommodates the multi-linear and multifactorial emergence of state characteristics. The article concludes that cliodynamic data, despite methodological limitations, support a complex and variable understanding of state formation