UC Merced

California’s agricultural systems face dual pressures of water scarcity and climate variability intensified by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). This dissertation integrates spatial modeling, climate analysis, and agronomic feasibility assessments to evaluate three high-value specialty crops — coffee, olives, and saffron — as models for sustainable diversification in the San Joaquin Valley and other water-limited regions. Using high-resolution historical and future climate data, thermal suitability thresholds were mapped and coupled with floodplain and irrigation demand models to define zones of opportunity and constraint. The results show that coffee can be cultivated in coastal and foothill microclimates, olives provide a water-smart alternative to tree nuts, and saffron offers ultra-low water use and seasonal dormancy aligned with SGMA objectives. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how data-driven crop substitution and system optimization can reduce water use while maintaining economic viability, supporting California’s transition to climate-resilient agriculture.