UC Berkeley

Existing and emerging stressors are forcing monumental changes in the operation and planning of electric power systems. These stressors include increasing integration of renewable energy, rapidly growing demands due to electrified transportation and heating, and widespread climate change impacts. At the same time, policymakers, regulators, and the public are holding electric power systems accountable for meeting electricity demand safely, reliably, and cost-effectively, for operating sustainably, and for serving customers equitably. In this context, planning for the future requires increasing attention on accounting for the technical characteristics of the electricity system alongside policy goals. This dissertation is structured around bridging technical and policy considerations in two key areas of power system planning: (1) integrating new technologies and loads on electric distribution grids, and (2) adapting to climate change.

Chapters 1 and 2 of this dissertation focus on electric distribution systems. These are comprised of the substations, circuits, and associated electrical equipment that serve homes, businesses, and industry. This infrastructure will need to accommodate the increasing deployment of new technologies, such as distributed solar arrays and electric vehicles, as well as growing demands for electricity to serve new loads. However, its ability to do so may come into conflict with ambitious policy goals for the deployment of distributed energy resources and emissions reductions through electrification. The State of California forms a ripe case study for a granular analysis of distribution system limits: the state is a leader in deploying these new technologies and has set ambitious climate goals that will rely in part on electrifying buildings and transportation. It has also led efforts in requiring its largest utilities to publish granular data on their electric distribution systems.

In Chapter 1, I consider the limits of the distribution circuits operated by California's two largest electric utilities, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) and Southern California Edison, to accommodate distributed solar and new loads. I find that distribution circuit limits will broadly constrain households' ability to adopt new technologies. Further, I find that distribution system limits will exacerbate existing inequities in who can benefit from these technologies. Meeting policy goals related to equitable access to distributed resources and their benefits will therefore require careful consideration of the value these technologies may bring in the context of distribution system constraints.

In Chapter 2, I consider how new electricity demands due to vehicle and building electrification may stress PG&E's distribution grid. Specifically, I evaluate circuit and substation limits for new load in concert with projections of hourly demand patterns due to electrification. I find that the rate of circuit upgrades that will be needed to meet increasing demands due to electrification may outpace what is possible with conventional grid investments. Enabling rapid electrification to occur will require, therefore, planning ahead for grid upgrades as well as evaluating alternatives to conventional investments.

Chapters 3 and 4 of this dissertation focus on climate change adaptation for electricity systems. Climate change will have widespread impacts on electricity demand, generating resources, and electric lines and other equipment. Planning for these impacts requires evaluating these impacts in the context of the planning approaches that are currently used in the electricity sector.

In Chapter 3, I focus on understanding how climate data may be used in electricity sector planning. I use California as a case study, which enables a nuanced exploration of the many data streams, inputs, and actors involved in today's electricity sector planning processes. I find that existing planning approaches will require significant restructuring to incorporate climate data that must be used to plan for the future.

In Chapter 4, I move beyond California to consider how critical infrastructure planning processes, with electricity as a case study, might be able to appropriately incorporate the significant uncertainties that climate change will bring. I conduct a review of literature in decision science, electric industry practice, and electricity sector planning under climate change. Through these reviews, I identify key insights from decision science for managing deep uncertainty and evaluate how they might be incorporated into electricity sector planning.

I conclude with a summary of findings, recommendations for policymakers, and areas for future research.