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Estimating methane emissions from biological and fossil-fuel sources in the San Francisco Bay Area

  • Author(s): Jeong, S
  • Cui, X
  • Blake, DR
  • Miller, B
  • Montzka, SA
  • Andrews, A
  • Guha, A
  • Martien, P
  • Bambha, RP
  • LaFranchi, B
  • Michelsen, HA
  • Clements, CB
  • Glaize, P
  • Fischer, ML
  • et al.
Abstract

We present the first sector-specific analysis of methane (CH ) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil-fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH and selected VOCs, a source-specific 1 km CH emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH emissions are 166–289 Gg CH /yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, 82 ± 27% of total posterior median CH emissions are biological and 17 ± 3% fossil fuel, where landfill and natural gas dominate the biological and fossil-fuel CH of prior emissions, respectively. 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

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