A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia
- Author(s): Korotayev, Andrey;
- Zinkina, Julia;
- Kobzeva, Svetlana;
- Bozhevolnov, Justislav;
- Khaltourina, Daria;
- Malkov, Artemy;
- Malkov, Sergey
- et al.
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio22217
The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.