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A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia

et al.
© 2011 by the author(s). Learn more.

Published Web Location

https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio22217
Abstract

The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.


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