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A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia

  • Author(s): Korotayev, Andrey
  • Zinkina, Julia
  • Kobzeva, Svetlana
  • Bozhevolnov, Justislav
  • Khaltourina, Daria
  • Malkov, Artemy
  • Malkov, Sergey
  • et al.
Abstract

The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.

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