UC San Diego

Data on risk factors predicting rapid progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or short-term kidney function decline (i.e., within 1 year) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) are rare but urgently needed to plan treatment. This study describes the association and predictive value of urinary uromodulin (uUMOD) for rapid progression of CKD.We assessed uUMOD, demographic/treatment parameters, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and proteinuria in 230 CKD patients stage I-V. ESRD and 25% decline of eGFR was documented at the end of follow-up period and used as a composite endpoint. Association between logarithmic uUMOD and eGFR/proteinuria was calculated using linear regression analysis, adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index. We performed multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to evaluate the association of uUMOD with the composite endpoint. Therefore, patients were categorized into quartiles. The predictive value of uUMOD for the above outcomes was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Follow-up was 57.3 ± 18.7 weeks, baseline age was 60 (18;92) years, and eGFR was 38 (6;156) mL/min/1.73 m. Forty-seven (20.4%) patients reached the composite endpoint. uUMOD concentrations were directly associated with eGFR and inversely associated with proteinuria (β = 0.554 and β = -0.429, P < .001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, the first 2 quartiles of uUMOD concentrations had a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.589 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.002-12.992] and 5.409 (95% CI 1.444-20.269), respectively, in comparison to patients of the highest quartile (≥11.45 μg/mL) for the composite endpoint. In ROC-analysis, uUMOD predicted the composite endpoint with good sensitivity (74.6%) and specificity (76.6%) at an optimal cut-off at 3.5 μg/mL and area under the curve of 0.786 (95% CI 0.712-0.860, P < .001).uUMOD was independently associated with ESRD/rapid loss of eGFR. It might serve as a robust predictor of rapid kidney function decline and help to better schedule arrangements for future treatment.