University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

The debate on European security over the past several years has focused almost exclusively on the question of whether, and to which countries, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should expand its membership. With the near certainty of NATO Parliaments ratifying the admission to NATO of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in 1999, two important policy issues now loom: how enlargement will affect NATO's contribution to European security, and whether further enlargement is a preferable course of action to other alternatives for enhancing security in Europe.

This assessment concludes that NATO's central challenges will remain internal. The NATO allies have still not developed a workable consensus on the breadth, either geographically or functionally, of NATO's role in post-Cold War Europe. As discussions over the cost of enlargement and the crisis in Iraq have demonstrated, the burdensharing issue remains a source of resentment on both sides of the Atlantic. The "revolution in military affairs" occurring in U.S. military forces and continued attention to the European Union's economic and monetary union will exacerbate the burdensharing issue. Many of NATO's internal difficulties are inherent in the transition after the Cold War; however, they nonetheless deserve more attention than they currently receive. NATO has succeeded in creating a NATO-centric European security system, and must resolve these disputes for Europe to be secure.

Incorporation of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic into NATO does not change NATO's central purposes, nor does it, on balance, change the alliance's ability to effectively carry out its responsibilities. Although their inclusion will certainly make the accession states feel more secure, and Russia perhaps less so, the net effect of NATO's first tranche of expansion will not appreciably change the European security landscape. NATO's further enlargement in the near term does pose higher risks of greater insecurity, most notably in relations with Russia.