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Cover page of Exploring the Role of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Electrifying Passenger Transportation

Exploring the Role of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Electrifying Passenger Transportation

(2019)

Key Takeaways

1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have an important role in the electrifi cation of passenger transportation. Long-range PHEVs not only are a transitional technology. They also are an enabling technology that can encourage more consumers to adopt electric vehicles.

2. The electric range of PHEVs has a signifi cant impact on electric vehicle miles traveled. PHEVs with electric range of at least 60km (37 miles (EPA Range)) have a similar ability to electrify travel as short-range battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

3. Assuming the goal of policymakers is to increase electric vehicle miles traveled, policy support should correspond directly to electric driving range of both PHEVs and BEVs. Short-range PHEVs should receive less policy support; long-range PHEVs and BEVs should receive more policy support.

4. Consumer research in several countries shows that mainstream consumers tend to be more attracted to PHEVs than to BEVs, however many consumers are unaware of how a PHEV diff ers from a BEV. Consumers and car dealerships need to be educated about PHEVs, their benefi ts, and the importance of charging the vehicles.

Cover page of State of the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market: Report II

State of the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market: Report II

(2018)

This is the second of two reports gauging the extent to which car-owning households in California have considered purchasing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles collectively, zero emission vehicles. It seeks insights into how to promote greater consideration across an increased number and broader variety of households. The analysis is based on two on-line surveys of car-owning households in California. The first was conducted in February (n = 1,681) and June 2017 (n = 1,706). Analysis of the February 2017 data is presented in the companion State of the Market Report 1. Nothing in the results for the June data contradicts the general findings from February.

New results from additional analysis of the role of biological sex/social gender is based on a recommendation in the first State of the market report. The lower likeliness that female respondents have considered zero emission vehicles is solely for fuel cell electric vehicles. There appear to be some slight differences in how some explanatory variables are correlated to consideration between males and females: for females, it matters more that they live in a household that has flexible vehicle assignments; for males, it matters more whether they claim familiarity with internal combustion engine vehicles and experience with zero emission vehicles. Still, these differences are marginal and do not contravene the overall finding that across all respondents—female and male—few have paid much attention to any kind of zero emission vehicle.

Zero emission vehicle consideration is a multi-faceted concept and there are several ways in which it can be initiated: personal contact with zero emission vehicle drivers; making visible the signs of the transition, i.e., teaching people which vehicles they see on the road are zero emission vehicles, making visible not merely of specific charger locations but a growing charging network, and marketing the fact incentives exist to buy and use zero emission vehicles; and expanding the number and variety of opportunities to gain direct experience of zero emission vehicles. In doing so, consider differential possibilities to provide targeted messages at the majority of car-owning households who are not opposed to the idea of zero emission vehicles, but simply have paid them no attention.

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Cover page of State of the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market: Report I

State of the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market: Report I

(2018)

This is the first of two reports that gauges the extent to which car-owning households in California have considered purchasing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (collectively, ZEVs). It explores which households have or have not considered ZEVs and, in those differences, seeks suggestions for how to promote greater consideration across an increased number and broader variety of households. The analysis is based on an on-line survey of car-owning households in California conducted in February 2017; the sample size was n = 1,681. The primary measure is the extent to which respondents have already considered a ZEV for their household: 4-of-5 car-owning households in California had given either no or nearly no consideration to ZEVs. Combined, less than 10 percent had given the highest two levels of consideration; active shopping or ownership. Other measures of awareness, name recognition, incentive knowledge, and driving experience were commensurately low. Relying on socio-economic and demographic variables to segment markets is unlikely to succeed. Variables describing respondents’ decision contexts and resources are important, especially whether respondents can reliably access electricity at a home parking location. General attitudes regarding air quality, the relative public health and environmental effects of electricity vs. gasoline, and experience with HEVs add further explanatory power.

Ultimately though, variables specific to ZEVs are more strongly associated with ZEV consideration: interest in ZEV technology; familiarity with ZEVs including name recognition, driving experience, and recognizing and recalling PEV charging, assessments of ZEV charging/fueling duration, driving range, purchase price, safety and reliability; and, whether people know a ZEV owner. The modeling done here is of differences between people at one point in time not of changes to people over time. Still, the suggestion is that to increase ZEV market growth it is essential to increase peoples’ awareness and knowledge, providing them with the basis for informed assessments, and thus prompt serious consideration of ZEVs for their households. It should not be expected that all the people who have so far paid no or little attention will be quickly converted to ZEV shoppers and owners. However, there seems little prospect to grow the ZEV market unless the vast majority of car-owning households in California can be engaged in the transition to electric-drive.

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Cover page of Steering the Electric Vehicle Transition to Sustainability

Steering the Electric Vehicle Transition to Sustainability

(2018)

To achieve carbon reduction goals for 2040 and 2050, plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) policy must be worldwide and involve multi-decade policy programs. One policy is a broadening commitment to ending fossil fuels for light-duty vehicles; this will solidify the direction and accelerate investments in zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and decapitalization of internal combustion drivetrain production so as to enable the climate driven timetable of the transition. Another proposed policy is up to two decades of financial signals to buyers and producers, sized to keep the market tilted toward PEVs while production costs decline. Additional privileges in road, parking and electricity systems are needed to attract more conservative segments of buyers and sellers. PEV manufacturers could commit to at least three generations of PEV design, and investment and product rollout into all market segments and vehicle designs. Outreach and education campaigns lasting through those three generations of potential consumers could also be implemented, including leveraging the enthusiastic desire of the first few million buyers to educate coworkers and neighbors. Inclusion of energy transitions in the education system is also necessary. The retail sector, primarily dealers included in the policy, could also have education and incentive programs. Efforts of OEMs, governments and power companies could be coordinated to meet charging needs and wants of the expanding market. This will need to include the greening of the grid and integration of PEVs in the system optimization of renewables.

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Cover page of The Dynamics of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the Secondary Market and Their Implications for Vehicle Demand, Durability, and Emissions

The Dynamics of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the Secondary Market and Their Implications for Vehicle Demand, Durability, and Emissions

(2018)

California is one of the first markets in the world to have a significant secondary market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which includes both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This study examines the status of the nascent secondary PEV market in California. The authors examine who purchases these vehicles and how used PEVs are utilized. They examine the role of PEV purchase incentives both via surveys of used PEV buyers and through econometric analysis of detailed micro data. Results suggests that California PEV buyers have significantly higher incomes than the average household. If California seeks to broaden the used PEV market, lower income buyers must be brought into the market. On this count, the used PEV market appears to be beneficial, attracting buyers with slightly lower incomes than in the new PEV market. Results also indicate that used PHEV owners (and, more precisely, short-range used PEV owners) are charging their vehicles less than they could. In addition, results show that early used PEV buyers have significant knowledge gaps, such as being unaware of new PEV purchase incentives, which reduce their ability to compare price options. Overall, the early used PEV buyers were satisfied with the PEV technology and would redo their purchase or buy another PEV. This bodes well for the future of the PEV market. High occupancy vehicle stickers were a powerful motivator for a subset of PHEV used buyers, perhaps due to the lack of new stickers being available at the time of and preceding the survey. Our econometric analysis shows that the presence of new BEV purchase subsidies correlates with a small net outflow of used PEVs to states that do not offer new BEV subsidies. If this modest exit of PEVs grows overtime, it could make it more difficult to achieve state level environmental goals, such as local pollution abatement or state-level GHG reduction targets. Our analysis finds that PEV sales to minority groups show no clear signs of market access discrimination in the new or used PEV markets. Finally, our findings show that PHEV and BEV markets and consumers operate differently from each other, suggesting the need to be careful about treating them identically in analysis and policy-formation.

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Cover page of "Actual Results May Vary": A Behavioral Review of Eco-Driving for Policy Makers

"Actual Results May Vary": A Behavioral Review of Eco-Driving for Policy Makers

(2015)

The most commonly stated function of eco-driving has been increased on-road fuel economy. Other functions, such as emissions reductions and safety, have been substituted or conflated with fuel economy. There is no consensus on what behaviors constitute eco-driving: definitions differ by functions, forms, and contexts. To aid in systematizing eco-driving classifications, the authors propose a framework grounded in behavioral theory. Because definitions vary, so too do estimates of effects. Still, the literature presents a compelling case that drivers can increase their vehicles’ fuel economy compared to established vehicle ratings. Equally clear, there is much yet to be done to ensure that drivers capture and sustain these improvements. Most eco-driving interventions have focused on driving behaviors. They have largely been limited to training and feedback, with tentative conclusions that feedback is more effective. The behavioral framework suggested here highlights the need for intervention designs specific to the function, form, and context of eco-driving behaviors.

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