School of Public Health

California’s state government, employers and households are concerned about the future affordability of healthcare. We use health expenditure data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary to forecast California’s health expenditures from 2013 to 2022 and identify factors driving expenditure increases. Real health expenditures per capita (2013$) are forecasted to increase from $8,398 to $11,421 (or 36%), resulting in health expenditures increasing from 14.5% to 16.0% of California’s economy. Expenditure increases are mostly driven by gains in real income per capita (40-60%), followed by medical-specific inflation (23%), an aging population (14%), and insurance coverage gains (8%). The -4% to 16% residual is attributable to changes in the volume and mix of services and technology. Several innovations could potentially dampen these increases, such as shared-risk, value-based payment models, practice redesign initiatives, lower cost settings and healthcare professionals, many of which are found in accountable care organizations.

Adult salmon that stray when they escape into non-natal streams to spawn is a natural phenomenon that promotes population growth and genetic diversity, but excessive stray rates impede adult abundance restoration efforts. Adult San Joaquin River (SJR) Basin fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) that return to freshwater to spawn migrate through the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta). The Delta has been heavily affected by land development and water diversion. During the fall time-period for the years 1979 to 2007 Delta pumping facilities diverted on average 340% of the total inflow volume that entered the Delta from the SJR. The hypothesis tested in this paper is that river flow and Delta exports are not significantly correlated with SJR salmon stray rates. Adult coded-wire-tagged salmon recoveries from Central Valley rivers were used to estimate the percentage of SJR Basin salmon that strayed to the Sacramento River Basin. SJR salmon stray rates were negatively correlated (P = 0.05) with the average magnitude of pulse flows (e.g., 10 d) in mid- to late-October and positively correlated (P = 0.10) with mean Delta export rates. It was not possible to differentiate between the effects of pulse flows in October and mean flows in October and November on stray rates because of the co-linearity between these two variables. Whether SJR-reduced pulse flow or elevated exports causes increased stray rates is unclear. Statistically speaking the results indicate that flow is the primary factor. However empirical data indicates that little if any pulse flow leaves the Delta when south Delta exports are elevated, so exports in combination with pulse flows may explain the elevated stray rates. For management purposes, we developed two statistical models that predict SJR salmon stray rate: (1) flow and export as co-independent variables; and (2) south Delta Export (E) and SJR inflow (I) in the form of an E:I ratio.

In this article, we describe an elective course using readers’ theater with students in the health care professions and the arts. Readers' theater is a technique used for the performance of literature in which texts are staged with minimal production values and scripts are not fully memorized. These techniques are drawn upon more commonly in theater and performance studies classrooms, but we found them to be effective as tools for connecting future health care providers with their local communities. With a central theme of age and aging, we chose non-dramatic works of literature and adapted them for dramatic readings at retirement communities in Berkeley and Oakland, California.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal folate supplementation has been consistently associated with a reduced risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Previous germline genetic studies examining the one carbon (folate) metabolism pathway were limited in sample size, scope, and population diversity and led to inconclusive results. METHODS: We evaluated whether ∼2,900 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) within 46 candidate genes involved in the folate metabolism pathway influence the risk of childhood ALL, using genome-wide data from nine case-control studies in the Childhood Cancer and Leukemia International Consortium (n = 9,058 cases including 4,510 children of European ancestry, 3,018 Latinx, and 1,406 Asians, and 92,364 controls). Each study followed a standardized protocol for quality control and imputation of genome-wide data and summary statistics were meta-analyzed for all children combined and by major ancestry group using METAL software. RESULTS: None of the selected SNPs reached statistical significance, overall and for major ancestry groups (using adjusted Bonferroni P-value of 5 × 10-6 and less-stringent P-value of 3.5 × 10-5 accounting for the number of independent SNPs). None of the 10 top (nonsignificant) SNPs and corresponding genes overlapped across ancestry groups. CONCLUSIONS: This large meta-analysis of original data does not reveal associations between many common genetic variants in the folate metabolism pathway and childhood ALL in various ancestry groups. IMPACT: Genetic variants in the folate pathway alone do not appear to substantially influence childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia risk. Other mechanisms such as gene-folate interaction, DNA methylation, or maternal genetic effects may explain the observed associations with self-reported prenatal folate intake.

Purpose of review

Recent findings

There is little information available on antibiotic resistance (ABR) within shrimp aquaculture environments. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in shrimp farming operations in Atacames, Ecuador. Water samples (n = 162) and shrimp samples (n = 54) were collected from three shrimp farming operations. Samples were cultured and a subset of isolates that grew in the presence of ceftriaxone, a third-generation cephalosporin, were analyzed using whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Among the sequenced isolates (n = 44), 73% of the isolates contained at least one ARG and the average number of ARGs per isolate was two, with a median of 3.5 ARGs. Antibiotic resistance genes that confer resistance to the β-lactam class of antibiotics were observed in 65% of the sequenced isolates from water (20/31) and 54% of the isolates from shrimp (7/13). We identified 61 different ARGs across the 44 sequenced isolates, which conferred resistance to nine antibiotic classes. Over half of all sequenced isolates (59%, n = 26) carried ARGs that confer resistance to more than one class of antibiotics. ARGs for certain antibiotic classes were more common, including beta-lactams (26 ARGs); aminoglycosides (11 ARGs); chloramphenicol (three ARGs); and trimethoprim (four ARGs). Sequenced isolates consisted of a diverse array of bacterial orders and species, including Escherichia coli (48%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (7%), Aeromonadales (7%), Pseudomonadales (16%), Enterobacter cloacae (2%), and Citrobacter freundii (2%). Many ARGs were shared across diverse species, underscoring the risk of horizontal gene transfer in these environments. This study indicated the widespread presence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) genes in shrimp aquaculture, including blaCTX-M, blaSHV, and blaTEM genes. Increased antibiotic resistance surveillance of shrimp farms and identification of aquaculture operation-level risk factors, such as antibiotic use, will likely be important for mitigating the spread of ARGs of clinical significance.

Extreme weather events are becoming more severe due to climate change, increasing the risk of contaminant releases from hazardous sites disproportionately located in low-income communities of color. We evaluated contaminant releases during Hurricanes Rita, Ike, and Harvey in Texas and used regression models to estimate associations between neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and residential proximity to hurricane-related contaminant releases. Two-to-three times as many excess releases were reported during hurricanes compared to business-as-usual periods. Petrochemical manufacturing and refineries were responsible for most air emissions events. Multivariable models revealed sociodemographic disparities in likelihood of releases; compared to neighborhoods near regulated facilities without a release, a one-percent increase in Hispanic residents was associated with a 5 and 10% increase in the likelihood of an air emissions event downwind and within 2 km during Hurricanes Rita and Ike (odds ratio and 95% credible interval= 1.05 [1.00, 1.13], combined model) and Harvey (1.10 [1.00, 1.23]), respectively. Higher percentages of renters (1.07 [1.03, 1.11], combined Rita and Ike model) and rates of poverty (1.06 [1.01, 1.12], Harvey model) were associated with a higher likelihood of a release to land or water, while the percentage of Black residents (0.94 [0.89, 1.00], Harvey model) was associated with a slightly lower likelihood. Population density was consistently associated with a decreased likelihood of a contaminant release to air, land, or water. Our findings highlight social inequalities in the risks posed by natural-technological disasters that disproportionately impact Hispanic, renter, low-income, and rural populations.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality rates are high in Nigeria. While prostate cancer is highly curable with early detection and effective multidisciplinary management, the quality of care is suboptimal in this setting. Sustainable delivery of high-quality care for patients with localized prostate cancer is needed to save more lives. To inform future interventions to improve care, this study aimed to identify barriers and facilitators that influence prostate cancer detection and management in Nigeria. METHODS: Six focus group discussions (FGDs), stratified by stakeholders were conducted with a purposive sample of prostate cancer patients (n = 19), caregivers (n = 15), and healthcare providers (n = 18), in two academic tertiary hospitals in northern and southern Nigeria. A discussion guide organized based on the socio-ecological model was used. FGDs were recorded, transcribed, and analysed using the framework technique. RESULTS: Barriers and facilitators were identified at the individual, interpersonal, and organizational levels. Barriers to detection included limited knowledge and misperceptions among patients, caregivers, and community-based non-specialist healthcare providers, and limitations of centralized opportunistic screening; while facilitators included the potential for religious institutions to encourage positive health-seeking behaviour. Barriers to management included non-uniformity in clinical guideline usage, treatment abandonment amidst concerns about treatment and survival, absence of patient interaction platforms and follow-up support systems, difficulty in navigating service areas, low health insurance coverage and limited financial resource of patients. Facilitators of management included the availability of resource stratified guidelines for prostate cancer management and the availability of patient peers, caregivers, nurses, and medical social workers to provide correct medical information and support patient-centred services. Participants also provided suggestions that could help improve prostate cancer detection and management in Nigeria. CONCLUSION: This study identified multiple determinants affecting the detection and management of localized prostate cancer. These findings will inform the refinement of implementation strategies to improve the quality of prostate cancer care in Nigeria.