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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (22 results)

  • Thesis
  • Peer Reviewed
UC Berkeley Electronic Theses and Dissertations (2015)

China’s power sector accounts for 25% of the world coal consumption–fully about 13% of total global carbon emissions from fossil fuel. Decarbonizing China’s power sector will shape how the country and to a large extent the world uses energy and addresses pollution and climate change. Combining methods of GIS modeling and wind and solar capacity factor simulation, this study utilized 200 representative locations each independently for wind and solar, with 10 years of hourly wind speed and solar irradiation data to investigate provincial capacity and output potentials from 2001 to 2010, and to build wind and solar availability profiles. This study then examined the implications of the solar and wind variability and availability in the context of an overall energy strategy for China by using a system optimization model: SWITCH-China to analyze the feasibility, costs and benefits of China’s clean power transition under three key policy scenarios: Reference Scenario, Low Cost Renewable Scenario, and Carbon Cap Scenario. By optimizing capacity expansion and hourly generation dispatch simultaneously, SWITCH-China is uniquely suited to explore both the value of and synergies among various power system technology options, providing policymakers and industry leaders with important information about the optimal development of the electricity grid. China’s power sector is in the midst of fast development, and today’s investment decisions will have a large impact on the country’s ability to achieve its environmental and carbon mitigation goals. Concerted actions are needed to enable such a transition, including introducing a meaningful carbon price, coordinating the investment decisions, and building the necessary infrastructure for moving energy around.

    Cover page: Decarbonizing China’s Power Sector: Potential, Prospects and Policy
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2014)
    China's wind installed capacity has grown at a remarkable rate, over 80% annually average growth since 2005, reaching 91.5 GW of capacity by end of 2013, accounting for over 27% of global capacity. This rapid growth has been the result of a domestic manufacturing base and favorable national policies. Further evolution will be greatly aided with a detailed wind resource assessment that incorporates spatial and temporal variability across China. We utilized 200 representative locations for which 10 years of hourly wind speed data exist to develop provincial capacity factors from 2001 to 2010, and to build analytic wind speed profiles. From these data and analysis we find that China's annual wind generation could reach 2000 TWh to 3500 TWh. Nationally this would correspond to an average capacity factor of 0.18. The diurnal and seasonal variation shows spring and winter has better wind resources than in the summer and fall. A highly interconnected and coordinated power system is needed to effectively exploit this large but variable resource. A full economic assessment of exploitable wind resources demands a larger, systems-level analysis of China's energy options, for which this work is a core requirement.
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2016)
      Integrating variable energy resources, notably solar and wind, requires better understanding of where, when and how much of variable resources are available. China's ambitious solar energy development goal will be greatly facilitated by the resources assessment at higher spatial and temporal resolution. We utilized 10-year hourly solar irradiation data from 2001 to 2010 from 200 representative locations to develop provincial solar availability profiles. We found that China has a potential stationary solar capacity from 4700GW to 39300GW, distributed solar about 200 GW, and the annual solar output could reach 6900 TWh to 70100 TWh. Resources are most concentrated in northwest provinces, topped by Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Gansu. The challenge of solar development in China is integration rather than resources. The spatial and temporal variation of the solar resource show an efficient, robust, and inter-connected national grid and sound energy planning would be necessary to facilitate the integration of these vastly available but variable solar resources.
        Cover page: Where, when and how much solar is available? A provincial-scale solar resource assessment for China
        • Article
        • Peer Reviewed
        LBL Publications (2024)
        China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Decarbonizing the power system is key to achieving these targets. Pumped hydropower storage (PHS) can play a crucial role in greening China’s power system, by providing both short- and long-term energy storage, facilitating the integration of renewable energy, and maintaining grid stability. It's critical to evaluate the role of PHS in a power system with a high penetration of renewable energy sources and the amount of PHS needed to support the stability and reliability of a decarbonized power system. Our results indicate that the current PHS target (120 GW) is sufficient to balance the electricity supply and demand in the foreseeable future. However, the capacity of battery storage will witness a substantial increase between 2025 and 2050, emerging as a more economical solution to address the variability of renewable energy and accommodate demand growth. This study suggests that over-investment in PHS could lead to unnecessary electricity price inflation. Introducing market competition through an open and competitive bidding process for PHS development can more effectively control project costs and, consequently, electricity tariffs.
          Cover page: Role of Pumped Hydro Storage in China’s Power System TransitionCreative Commons 'BY-NC-ND' version 4.0 license
          • Article
          LBL Publications (2016)
          Understanding the relationship between economic growth and electricity use is essential for power systems planning. This need is particularly acute now in China, as the Chinese economy is going through a transition to a more consumption and service oriented economy. This study uses 20 years of provincial data on gross domestic product (GDP) and electricity consumption to examine the relationship between these two factors. We observe a plateauing effect of electricity consumption in the richest provinces, as the electricity demand saturates and the economy develops and moves to a more service-based economy. There is a wide range of forecasts for electricity use in 2030, ranging from 5,308 to 8,292 kWh per capita, using different estimating functions, as well as in existing studies. It is therefore critical to examine more carefully the relationship between electricity use and economic development, as China transitions to a new growth phase that is likely to be less energy and resource intensive. The results of this study suggest that policymakers and power system planners in China should seriously re-evaluate power demand projections and the need for new generation capacity to avoid over-investment that could lead to stranded generation assets.
            Cover page: Economic Rebalancing and Electricity Demand in China:
            • Article
            • Peer Reviewed
            Energy Analysis Env Impacts (2020)
            A structural shift to the tertiary sector and production reduction in heavy industries slow growth in electricity consumption in China. GDP remains as the leading factor driving electricity demand. It is projected an annual growth rate of 3.1 percent to 5.1 percent for electricity consumption in China by 2020, given that key features in China's economic transition are likely to continue in the foreseeable future. There exist regional patterns in electricity demand growth, separating the more developed regions along the eastern coast and the less-developed inland regions, due to different economic and demographic trends.
              Cover page: Regional electricity demand and economic transition in China
              • Article
              • Peer Reviewed
              UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2015)
              Critical assessment of mega-projects is emerging as a much-needed discipline in an era when, in many places, resource demands exceed environmental capacity. This techno-economic study, using the Desalination Economic Evaluation Program developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency, shows that by 2030, China will have the capacity to produce 23.1billionm3 of water annually, at $0.86/m3, as a co-product of electricity generation through nuclear power, provided that the country favors desalination over water diversion. We calculate that the resulting water production and supply chain needed to eradicate absolute scarcity for 0.16 billion people will cost between $0.99/m3 and $1.79/m3, and we prove that this will be affordable, even for the poorest inhabitants. We then compare both coal and nuclear desalination with the currently planned South-North Water Transfer Mega-Project and show that, while the short-run cost of water diversion is lower, critical vulnerabilities and future resource demands favor nuclear desalination.
                • Peer Reviewed
                UC Berkeley Previously Published Works (2018)
                  • Article
                  • Peer Reviewed
                  LBL Publications (2022)
                  Renewable energy is poised to play a major role in achieving China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060; however, reliability and flexibility is a big concern of a renewable-dominant power system. Various strategies of enhancing flexibility are under discussion to ensure the reliability of such a system, but no detailed quantitative analysis has been reported yet in China. We combine the advantages of a capacity expansion model, SWITCH-China, with a production simulation model, PLEXOS, and analyze flexibility options under different scenarios of a renewable-dominant power system in China. We find that a larger balancing area offers direct flexibility benefits. Regional balancing could reduce the renewable curtailment rate by 5-7%, compared with a provincial balancing strategy. National balancing could further reduce the power cost by about 16%. However, retrofitting coal power plants for flexible operation would only improve the system flexibility marginally.
                    Cover page: Large balancing areas and dispersed renewable investment enhance grid flexibility in a renewable-dominant power system in China
                    • Article
                    • Peer Reviewed
                    UC San Diego Previously Published Works (2022)
                    Achieving carbon neutrality requires deploying renewable energy at unprecedented speed and scale1,2, yet countries sometimes implement policies that increase costs by restricting the free flow of capital, talent and innovation in favour of localizing benefits such as economic growth, employment and trade surpluses3,4. Here we assess the cost savings from a globalized solar photovoltaic (PV) module supply chain. We develop a two-factor learning model using historical capacity, component and input material price data of solar PV deployment in the United States, Germany and China. We estimate that the globalized PV module market has saved PV installers US$24 (19-31) billion in the United States, US$7 (5-9) billion in Germany and US$36 (26-45) billion in China from 2008 to 2020 compared with a counterfactual scenario in which domestic manufacturers supply an increasing proportion of installed capacities over a ten-year period. Projecting the same scenario forwards from 2020 results in estimated solar module prices that are approximately 20-25 per cent higher in 2030 compared with a future with globalized supply chains. International climate policy benefits from a globalized low-carbon value chain4, and these results point to the need for complementary policies to mitigate welfare distribution effects and potential impacts on technological crowding out.
                      Cover page: Quantifying the cost savings of global solar photovoltaic supply chainsCreative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license
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