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Impact of catch-up human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer incidence in Kenya: A mathematical modeling evaluation of HPV vaccination strategies in the context of moderate HIV prevalence



Cervical cancer incidence is high in Kenya due to HIV and limited access to cancer prevention services. Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been shown to increase HIV acquisition; however, the potential impact of HPV vaccination on HIV is unknown. We modeled the health impact of HPV vaccination in the context of the HIV epidemiology in Kenya.


Using a validated compartmental transmission model of HIV and HPV set in Kenya, we evaluated five scenarios of nonavalent HPV vaccination: single-age-vaccination of 10-year-old girls at 90% coverage; multi-age-cohort (MAC) vaccination of 10-14-year-old girls at 90% coverage; MAC plus moderate-coverage (50%) catch-up vaccination of 15-24-year-old women; MAC plus high-coverage (80%) catch-up of 15-24-year-old women; and MAC plus catch-up of 15-44-year-old women at 80% coverage (HPV-FASTER). We compared cervical cancer incidence, HIV prevalence, and cumulative cervical cancer and HIV cases averted after 50 years to a baseline scenario without vaccination. In all scenarios, we assumed the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goal for HIV treatment is attained by 2030.


In 2021, model-estimated cervical cancer incidence is 44/100,000 and HIV prevalence among women is 6·5%. In 2070, projected cancer incidence declines to 27/100,000 and HIV prevalence reaches 0·3% without vaccination. With single-age-vaccination, cancer incidence in 2070 is reduced by 68%, averting 64,529 cumulative cancer cases. MAC vaccination reduces cancer incidence by 75%, averting 206,115 cancer cases. Moderate and high-coverage catch-up and HPV-FASTER reduce cancer incidence by 80%, 82%, and 84%, averting 254,930, 278,690, and 326,968 cancer cases, respectively. In all scenarios, HIV prevalence in 2070 is reduced by a relative 8-11%, with 15,609-34,981 HIV cases averted after 50 years.


HPV vaccination can substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence in Kenya in the next 50 years, particularly if women up to age 24 are vaccinated. HIV treatment scale-up can also alleviate cervical cancer burden. However, HPV vaccination has modest additional impact on HIV when antiretroviral therapy coverage is high.


National Institutes of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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