Analog Game Studies

Deception has been a cornerstone of card games throughout human history, but what underlying patterns drive player behavior in social deduction games? This study explores player psychology and decision-making in the card game COUP using self-collected telemetry data from eight gameplay sessions. We identify key patterns shaped by risk sensitivity, uncertainty aversion, and emotional responses such as revenge. Despite being permitted and seemingly central to victory, in our small sample study, we discovered that lying was far less common than expected. Most players avoided bluffing whenever possible, and when they did bluff, they failed more often than they succeeded. Instead of pure strategic calculation, we found gameplay driven by emotional grudges, revenge spirals, and what we came to call the “hatred meter”: players targeting opponents who had wronged them, even when it defied optimal strategy. And we found meta-gaming patterns emerging across sessions, where players developed implicit tactical rules that never appeared in the official rulebook but spread through experiential learning. Our findings reveal how COUP serves as a compelling window into human decision-making, where risk aversion, cognitive load, perceived scarcity, and emotional dynamics could override rational strategic calculation in socially dynamic, competitive environments.