UCSF

To test the hypothesis that older women with higher cystatin C are at increased risk of hip fracture independent of traditional risk factors including hip bone mineral density (BMD), we performed a case-cohort analysis nested in a cohort of 4709 white women attending a Year 10 (1997-1998) examination of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures that included a random sample of 1170 women and the first 300 women with incident hip fracture occurring after Year 10 examination. Serum cystatin C and creatinine were measured in Year 10 sera. In a model adjusted for age, clinical site, body mass index, and total hip BMD, higher cystatin C was associated with an increased risk of hip fracture (p for linear trend 0.008) with women in quartile 4 having a 1.9-fold higher risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-2.95) compared with those in quartile 1 (referent group). Further adjustment for additional risk factors only slightly attenuated the association; the risk for hip fracture was 1.7-fold higher (HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.11-2.72) in women in quartile 4 compared with those in quartile 1. In contrast, neither serum creatinine nor creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCr ) were associated with risk of hip fracture. Older women with higher cystatin C, but not higher serum creatinine or lower eGFRCr , have an increased risk of hip fracture independent of traditional risk factors. These findings suggest that cystatin C may be a promising biomarker for identification of older adults at high risk of hip fracture.