UCSF

Background

People with advanced chronic kidney disease are at risk for the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but also many other adverse outcomes, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and death. Determination of risk factors that explain the variability in prognosis and timing of these adverse outcomes can aid patient counseling and medical decision making.

Study design

Prospective research cohort.

Setting & participants

1,798 participants with estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs)<30mL/min/1.73m² in the CRIC Study were followed up for a median of 5.5 years.

Predictors

Age, race, sex, eGFR, proteinuria, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, ejection fraction, systolic blood pressure, history of CVD, and smoking history.

Outcomes

ESRD, CVD (congestive heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, and peripheral artery disease), and death.

Results

Baseline age of the cohort was 60 years, 46% were women, and 46% were African American. Although 52.3% of participants progressed to ESRD during follow-up, the path by which this occurred was variable. For example, predicted 1-year probabilities for a hypothetical 60-year-old white woman with eGFR of 30mL/min/1.73m², urine protein excretion of 1.8g/d, and no diabetes or CVD (risk characteristics similar to the average participant) were 3.3%, 4.1%, and 0.3%, for first developing CVD, ESRD, and death, respectively. For a 40-year-old African American man with similar characteristics but higher systolic blood pressure, the corresponding 1-year probabilities were 2.4%, 13.2%, and 0.1%. For all participants, the development of ESRD or CVD increased the risk for subsequent mortality, with no differences by patient race or body mass index.

Limitations

The CRIC population was specifically recruited for kidney disease, and the vast majority had seen a nephrologist.

Conclusions

The prognosis and timing of adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease vary by patient characteristics. These results may help guide the development of personalized approaches for managing patients with advanced CKD.