Skip to main content
Open Access Publications from the University of California


UC San Francisco Previously Published Works bannerUCSF

Prediction of future healthcare expenses of patients from chest radiographs using deep learning: a pilot study.

  • Author(s): Sohn, Jae Ho;
  • Chen, Yixin;
  • Lituiev, Dmytro;
  • Yang, Jaewon;
  • Ordovas, Karen;
  • Hadley, Dexter;
  • Vu, Thienkhai H;
  • Franc, Benjamin L;
  • Seo, Youngho
  • et al.

Our objective was to develop deep learning models with chest radiograph data to predict healthcare costs and classify top-50% spenders. 21,872 frontal chest radiographs were retrospectively collected from 19,524 patients with at least 1-year spending data. Among the patients, 11,003 patients had 3 years of cost data, and 1678 patients had 5 years of cost data. Model performances were measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) for classification of top-50% spenders and Spearman ρ for prediction of healthcare cost. The best model predicting 1-year (N = 21,872) expenditure achieved ROC-AUC of 0.806 [95% CI 0.793-0.819] for top-50% spender classification and ρ of 0.561 [0.536-0.586] for regression. Similarly, for predicting 3-year (N = 12,395) expenditure, ROC-AUC of 0.771 [0.750-0.794] and ρ of 0.524 [0.489-0.559]; for predicting 5-year (N = 1779) expenditure ROC-AUC of 0.729 [0.667-0.729] and ρ of 0.424 [0.324-0.529]. Our deep learning model demonstrated the feasibility of predicting health care expenditure as well as classifying top 50% healthcare spenders at 1, 3, and 5 year(s), implying the feasibility of combining deep learning with information-rich imaging data to uncover hidden associations that may allude to physicians. Such a model can be a starting point of making an accurate budget in reimbursement models in healthcare industries.

Many UC-authored scholarly publications are freely available on this site because of the UC's open access policies. Let us know how this access is important for you.

Main Content
For improved accessibility of PDF content, download the file to your device.
Current View