Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the growing sizes of scientific data, it has become challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a model to forecast expected bandwidth utilization on high-bandwidth wide area networks. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of the resource utilization and scheduling of data movements on high-bandwidth networks to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. A univariate time-series forecast model is developed with the Seasonal decomposition of Time series by Loess (STL) and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) path utilization measurement data. Compared with the traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology to train the ARIMA model, our forecast model reduces computation time up to 92.6 %. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage changes. Our forecast model conducts the large number of multi-step forecast, and the forecast errors are within the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the monitored measurements.