UCSF

Osteoarthritis (OA) develops through heterogenous pathophysiologic pathways. As a result, no regulatory agency approved disease modifying OA drugs are available to date. Stratifying knees into MRI-based morphological phenotypes may provide insight into predicting future OA incidence, leading to improved inclusion criteria and efficacy of therapeutics. We trained convolutional neural networks to classify bone, meniscus/cartilage, inflammatory, and hypertrophy phenotypes in knee MRIs from participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (n = 4791). We investigated cross-sectional association between baseline morphological phenotypes and baseline structural OA (Kellgren Lawrence grade > 1) and symptomatic OA. Among participants without baseline OA, we evaluated association of baseline phenotypes with 48-month incidence of structural OA and symptomatic OA. The area under the curve of bone, meniscus/cartilage, inflammatory, and hypertrophy phenotype neural network classifiers was 0.89 ± 0.01, 0.93 ± 0.03, 0.96 ± 0.02, and 0.93 ± 0.02, respectively (mean ± standard deviation). Among those with no baseline OA, bone phenotype (OR: 2.99 (95%CI: 1.59-5.62)) and hypertrophy phenotype (OR: 5.80 (95%CI: 1.82-18.5)) each respectively increased odds of developing incident structural OA and symptomatic OA at 48 months. All phenotypes except meniscus/cartilage increased odds of undergoing total knee replacement within 96 months. Artificial intelligence can rapidly stratify knees into structural phenotypes associated with incident OA and total knee replacement, which may aid in stratifying patients for clinical trials of targeted therapeutics.