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Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

2020

Deser, C;
Lehner, F;
Rodgers, KB;
Ault, T;
Delworth, TL;
DiNezio, PN;
Fiore, A;
Frankignoul, C;
Fyfe, JC;
Horton, DE;
Kay, JE;
Knutti, R;
Lovenduski, NS;
Marotzke, J;
McKinnon, KA;
Minobe, S;
Randerson, J;
Screen, JA;
Simpson, IR;
Ting, M
et al.

Published Web Location

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2

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Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects\r
Strength in numbers with a Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive\r
New insights on separating sources of uncertainties\r
Decision-making and risk assessment in a variable climate\r
Multi-model LEs as methodological testbeds for observations\r
Designing future initial-condition LEs\r
Accommodating increases in model complexity and resolution\r
Emerging Earth system applications\r
Fostering effective LE design and incorporation into CMIP7\r
Final remarks\r
Online content\r
Fig. 1 Internal variability and model differences in continental temperature trends.
Fig. 2 Decision-making under uncertainty: changes in mean and variability.
Fig. 3 Decision-making under uncertainty: changes in extremes.
Fig. 4 Schematic showing the how model LEs can be used to test methods suitable for application to the single observational record for example, those aimed at separating forced climate change from internal variability.
Fig. 5 Interplay between a Model LE and an Observational LE.
Table 1 The multi-model LE archive and data repository.

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