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Testing for Regime Switching: A Comment

  • Author(s): Carter, Andrew V
  • Steigerwald, Douglas G
  • et al.
Abstract

In Cho and White (2007) "Testing for Regime Switching" the authors obtain the asymptotic null distribution of a quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) statistic. The statistic is designed to test the null hypothesis of one regime against the alternative of Markov switching between two regimes. Likelihood ratio statistics are used because the test involves nuisance parameters that are not identified under the null hypothesis, together with other nonstandard features. Cho and White focus on a quasi-likelihood, which ignores certain serial correlation properties but allows for a tractable factorization of the likelihood. While the majority of their paper focuses on asymptotic behavior under the null hypothesis, Theorem 1(b) states that the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) is consistent under the alternative hypothesis. Consistency of the QMLE requires that the expected quasi-log-likelihood attain a global maximum at the population parameter values. This requirement holds for some Markov regime-switching processes but, as we show below, not for an autoregressive process as analyzed in Cho and White.

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