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Aviation fuel tracer simulation: Model intercomparison and implications

  • Author(s): Danilin, M. Y;
  • Fahey, D. W;
  • Schumann, U.;
  • Prather, M. J;
  • Penner, J. E;
  • Ko, M. K. W;
  • Weisenstein, D. K;
  • Jackman, C. H;
  • Pitari, G.;
  • Kahler, I.;
  • Sausen, R.;
  • Weaver, C. J;
  • Douglass, A. R;
  • Connell, P. S;
  • Kinnison, D. E;
  • Dentener, F. J;
  • Fleming, E. L;
  • Berntsen, T. K;
  • Isaksen, I. S. A;
  • Haywood, J. M;
  • Karcher, B.
  • et al.
Abstract

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: 1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40°N; 2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km, 3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause, and 4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/m² and −0.013 W/m² due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

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