UC Berkeley

This study provides a method to quantify the benefit of shifting passenger traffic from air to high-speed rail (HSR) from the perspective of flight delay cost reduction. We first estimate the number of flight reductions for airport origin and destination pairs based on the HSR ridership forecast provided in the California High-Speed Rail 2020 Business Plan, and then distribute these flight reductions to quarter hours. After that, Lasso models are applied to estimate the impact of the reduced queuing delay of SFO, LAX and SAN on the arrival delay of national Core 29 airports. Finally, these delay reductions are monetized using aircraft operating cost per hour and the value of passenger time per hour. We apply several different variations of this approach, for example, considering delay at all 29 Core airports or just the major California airports, different scenarios for future airport capacity and flight schedules, and different percentiles of a probabilistic forecast for future HSR ridership. We ultimately arrive at delay cost savings of $51-88 million 2018 dollars in 2029 and 235-392 million 2018 dollars in 2033.