The three revolutions in transportation — shared mobility, electrification and autonomous vehicles — will fundamentally change transportation around the world. Rigorous research and impartial policy analysis are urgently needed to understand the impacts of these transportation revolutions, and to guide industry investments and government decision-making. This newly-established program was launched by the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) in November 2016 to address the growing need for research to assist and inform government and industry. The program leverages the 25 years of ITS-Davis pioneering interdisciplinary research on travel behavior, alternative vehicles and fuels, and land use, as well as a strong commitment for outcome-oriented, policy-relevant research.
This study helps understand how the anticipated emergence of autonomous vehicles will affect various aspects of society and transportation, including travel demand, vehicle miles traveled, energy consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The study begins with a literature review on connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology for light-duty vehicles, the factors likely to affect CAV adoption, expected impacts of CAVs, and approaches to modeling these impacts. The study then uses a set of modifications in the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) to simulate the following scenarios for the deployment of passenger light-duty CAVs in California by 2050: (0) Baseline (no automation); (1) Private CAV; (2) Private CAV + Pricing; (3) Private CAV + Zero emission vehicles (ZEV); (4) Shared CAV; (5) Shared CAV + Pricing; (6) Shared CAV + ZEV. The modified CSTDM is used to forecast travel demand and mode share for each scenario, and this output is used in combination with the emission factors from the EMission FACtor model (EMFAC) and Vision model to calculate energy consumption and criteria pollutant emissions. The modeling results indicate that the mode shares of public transit and in-state air travel will likely sharply decrease, while total vehicle miles traveled and emissions will likely increase, due to the relative convenience of CAVs. The study also reveals limitations in models like the CSTDM that primarily use sociodemographic factors and job/residence location as inputs for the simulation of activity participation and tour patterns, without accounting for some of the disruptive effects of CAVs. The study results also show that total vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours traveled could be substantially impacted by a modification in future auto travel costs. This means that the eventual implementation of pricing strategies and congestion pricing policies, together with policies that support the deployment of shared and electric CAVs, could help curb tailpipe pollutant emissions in future scenarios, though they may not be able to completely offset the increases in travel demand and road congestion that might result from CAV deployment. Such policies should be considered to counteract and mitigate some of the undesirable impacts of CAVs on society and on the environment.
The Adoption of Shared Mobility in California and Its Relationship with Other Components of Travel Behavior
Emerging technologies and shared mobility services are quickly changing transportation. The popularity of these services is particularly high among millennials and those living in the dense central parts of cities. Still, the reasons behind the adoption of these services and their impacts on the use of other transportation modes and on total travel demand are largely unclear. How are shared mobility services changing transportation demand and supply? This report provides useful insights to answer this question. The research explores the use of various types of shared mobility services in California, focusing in particular on the factors affecting the adoption and frequency of use of ridehailing services (such as those provided by Uber and Lyft), and the impacts that the use of these services has on other components of travel behavior. The authors analyze a dataset that they collected with a detailed online survey in fall 2015 as the first round of data collection in a panel study of emerging transportation trends and adoption of technology in California. More than 2,000 respondents, including millennials (i.e., young adults born between 1981 and 1997) and members of Generation X (i.e., middle-aged adults born between 1965 and 1980), completed the survey.
Emerging transportation services, whose development and adoption have been enabled by information and communication technology, are largely transforming people’s travel and activity patterns. This study investigates the emerging transportation trends and how they transform travel-related decision-making in the population at large through the application of a unique longitudinal approach. As part of this project, a second wave of data collection in 2018 was built with a rotating panel structure as a continuation of the research efforts that started with the collection of the 2015 California Millennials Dataset. This report focuses on the analyses of the data collected in this project, in particular on the differences in attitudes towards transportation and the environment among different generational groups, the adoption and use of shared mobility services, and their relationship with vehicle ownership, the interest in the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, and the interest in the future adoption of connected and automated vehicles. Due to the small number of respondents who participated in both surveys, for the purposes of the analyses contained in this report, we treated the data as repeated cross-sectional and analyzed the data from each survey separately. The study helps researchers evaluate the complex relationship between observed/latent characteristics and individual travel-related choices and decision-making. The study highlights attitudinal and mode-choice differences across generations. It explores the factors impacting current adoption of and future interest in new transportation technology including alternative fuel vehicles, automated vehicles and shared mobility. Divergent consumer segments are witnessed within each of these markets, with distinctive socio-demographics, latent attitudes, built environment, and level of familiarity with new technologies, which shape the uniqueness of their vehicle ownership, residential location, travel behavior, activity patterns, and lifestyle.
Related Research Centers & Groups
- China Center for Energy and Transportation
- National Center for Sustainable Transportation
- Energy Futures Research Center
- Hydrogen Pathways Program
- Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the Economy
- Plug-In Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center
- Sustainable Freight Research Center
- Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)
- Sustainable Transportation Center
- University of California Pavement Research Center
- Urban Land Use and Transportation Center
- UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies