Dominant plant species mediate many ecosystem services, including carbon storage, soil retention, and water cycling. One of the uncertainties with climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems is understanding where transitions in dominant vegetation, often termed state change, will occur. The complex nature of state change requires multiple lines of evidence. Here, we present four lines of inquiry into climate change effects on dominant vegetation, focusing on the likelihood and nature of climate change–driven state change. This study combined physiological measurements, geographic models, historical documented cases of state change, and statewide plot sampling networks together with interpolated climate grids. Together these approaches suggest that the vulnerability to state change will be driven by the proximity of climatic conditions to biological thresholds for dominant species. The sensitivity of the dominant species is a much greater driver of climate vulnerability compared to the degree of climate change seen by a particular place (Section 1). Furthermore, in some cases, physiological measurements on those species can inform the nature of these thresholds (Section 3). The study team’s review of past state change events suggests connections between particular state changes (e.g., forest to shrubland) and particular triggers (e.g., fire; Section 2). The effect of fire is particularly important, as it will likely interact with climatic change with implications for the success of different life history strategies among woody plants (Section 4). Our work suggests that the biological thresholds of dominant species will play a crucial role in the vulnerability of California terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding where climate change will push dominant species past these thresholds should be a major focus of future research.

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid-latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low-elevation stands occupy north-facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high-elevation stands grow on more south-facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low-lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.

Gross primary production (GPP)-the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO₂) by leaves, and its conversion to sugars by photosynthesis-is the basis for life on land. Earth System Models (ESMs) incorporating the interactions of land ecosystems and climate are used to predict the future of the terrestrial sink for anthropogenic CO₂¹ . ESMs require accurate representation of GPP. However, current ESMs disagree on how GPP responds to environmental variations ^1,2 , suggesting a need for a more robust theoretical framework for modelling ^3,4 . Here, we focus on a key quantity for GPP, the ratio of leaf internal to external CO₂ (χ). χ is tightly regulated and depends on environmental conditions, but is represented empirically and incompletely in today's models. We show that a simple evolutionary optimality hypothesis ^5,6 predicts specific quantitative dependencies of χ on temperature, vapour pressure deficit and elevation; and that these same dependencies emerge from an independent analysis of empirical χ values, derived from a worldwide dataset of >3,500 leaf stable carbon isotope measurements. A single global equation embodying these relationships then unifies the empirical light-use efficiency model ⁷ with the standard model of C₃ photosynthesis ⁸ , and successfully predicts GPP measured at eddy-covariance flux sites. This success is notable given the equation's simplicity and broad applicability across biomes and plant functional types. It provides a theoretical underpinning for the analysis of plant functional coordination across species and emergent properties of ecosystems, and a potential basis for the reformulation of the controls of GPP in next-generation ESMs.

Bloodstream infections (BSIs) are common in patients with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVADs). Whether CF-LVADs modulate the febrile response to BSIs is unknown. We retrospectively compared the febrile response to BSIs in patients with heart failure (HF) with CF-LVADs versus a control population of patients with HF receiving inotropic infusions. BSIs were adjudicated using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Healthcare Safety Network criteria. Febrile status (temperature ≥38°C, 100.4 °F), temperature at presentation with BSI, and the highest temperature within 72 hours (Tmax) were collected. We observed 59 BSIs in LVAD patients and 45 BSIs in controls. LVAD patients were more likely to be afebrile and to have a lower temperature at presentation than control (88% vs 58%, p=0.002, and 37°C ±0.7 vs 37.7°C ±1.0, p=0.0009, respectively). By 72 hours, the difference in afebrile status diminished (53% vs 44%, p=0.42), and the Tmax was similar between the LVAD and control groups (37.9°C±0.9 vs 38.2°C±0.8, respectively, p=0.10). In conclusion, at presentation with a BSI, the vast majority of CF-LVAD patients were afebrile, an event which occurred at a higher frequency when compared with patients with advanced HF on chronic inotropes via an indwelling venous catheter. These data alert clinicians to have a very low threshold to obtain blood cultures in CF-LVAD patients even in the absence of fever. Further study is needed to determine whether a delayed or diminished febrile response represents another pathophysiological consequence of CF-LVADs.

Background

Poor fitness in middle age is a risk factor for heart failure, particularly heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction. The development of heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction is likely mediated through increased left ventricular (LV) stiffness, a consequence of sedentary aging. In a prospective, parallel group, randomized controlled trial, we examined the effect of 2 years of supervised high-intensity exercise training on LV stiffness.

Methods

Sixty-one (48% male) healthy, sedentary, middle-aged participants (53±5 years) were randomly assigned to either 2 years of exercise training (n=34) or attention control (control; n=27). Right heart catheterization and 3-dimensional echocardiography were performed with preload manipulations to define LV end-diastolic pressure-volume relationships and Frank-Starling curves. LV stiffness was calculated by curve fit of the diastolic pressure-volume curve. Maximal oxygen uptake (Vo₂max) was measured to quantify changes in fitness.

Results

Fifty-three participants completed the study. Adherence to prescribed exercise sessions was 88±11%. Vo₂max increased by 18% (exercise training: pre 29.0±4.8 to post 34.4±6.4; control: pre 29.5±5.3 to post 28.7±5.4, group×time P<0.001) and LV stiffness was reduced (right/downward shift in the end-diastolic pressure-volume relationships; preexercise training stiffness constant 0.072±0.037 to postexercise training 0.051±0.0268, P=0.0018), whereas there was no change in controls (group×time P<0.001; pre stiffness constant 0.0635±0.026 to post 0.062±0.031, P=0.83). Exercise increased LV end-diastolic volume (group×time P<0.001), whereas pulmonary capillary wedge pressure was unchanged, providing greater stroke volume for any given filling pressure (loading×group×time P=0.007).

Conclusions

In previously sedentary healthy middle-aged adults, 2 years of exercise training improved maximal oxygen uptake and decreased cardiac stiffness. Regular exercise training may provide protection against the future risk of heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction by preventing the increase in cardiac stiffness attributable to sedentary aging.

Clinical trial registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02039154.

Disentangling the mechanisms that shape community assembly across diversity gradients is a central matter in ecology. While many studies have explored community assembly through species average trait values, there is a growing understanding that intraspecific trait variation (ITV) can also play a critical role in species coexistence. Classic biodiversity theory hypothesizes that higher diversity at species-rich sites can arise from narrower niches relative to species-poor sites, which would be reflected in reduced ITV as species richness increases. To explore how ITV in woody plant communities changes with species richness, we compiled leaf trait data (leaf size and specific leaf area) in a total of 521 woody plant species from 21 forest communities that differed dramatically in species richness, ranging from boreal to tropical rainforests. At each forest, we assessed ITV as an estimate of species niche breadth and we quantified the degree of trait overlap among co-occurring species as a measure of species functional similarity. We found ITV was relatively invariant across the species richness gradient. In addition, we found that species functional similarity increased with diversity. Contrary to the expectation from classic biodiversity theory, our results rather suggest that neutral processes or equalizing mechanisms can be acting as potential drivers shaping community assembly in hyperdiverse forests.

Aim: Within C3 plants, photosynthesis is a balance between CO2 supply from the atmosphere via stomata and demand by enzymes within chloroplasts. This process is dynamic and a complex but crucial aspect of photosynthesis. We sought to understand the spatial pattern in CO2 supply–demand balance on a global scale, via analysis of stable isotopes of carbon within leaves (Δ13C), which provide an integrative record of CO2 drawdown during photosynthesis. LocationGlobal. Time period1951–2011. Major taxa studiedVascular plants. Methods: We assembled a database of leaf carbon isotope ratios containing 3,979 species–site combinations from across the globe, including 3,645 for C3 species. We examined a wide array of potential climate and soil drivers of variation in Δ13C. Results: The strongest drivers of carbon isotope discrimination at the global scale included atmospheric pressure, potential evapotranspiration and soil pH, which explained 44% of the variation in Δ13C. Addition of eight more climate and soil variables (each explaining small but highly significant amounts of variation) increased the explained variation to 60%. On top of this, the largest plant trait effect was leaf nitrogen per area, which explained 11% of Δ13C variation. Main conclusions: By considering variation in Δ13C at a considerably larger scale than previously, we were able to identify and quantify key drivers in CO2 supply–demand balance previously unacknowledged. Of special note is the key role of soil properties, with greater discrimination on low-pH and high-silt soils. Unlike other plant traits, which show typically wide variation within sets of coexisting species, the global pattern in carbon stable isotope ratios is much more conservative; there is relatively narrow variation in time-integrated CO2 concentrations at the site of carboxylation among plants in a given soil and climate.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.