Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. Over the past three decades, substantial progress has been made in characterizing the changes in earth's mean climate state under a range of global warming scenarios. However, individuals and governments across the world are now interested in \emph{changes to the extremes} of the climate system. The tails of the distribution, typically associated with extreme weather patterns such as tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers and extra-tropical cyclones are highly impactful, and cause major disruption to human life, property and economy. This thesis makes an attempt to address the following question: \emph{How will extreme weather events change in the future?}
In order to address this question, we first need to address how extreme weather events are identified in climate datasets. For over four decades, climate analysts have applied heuristics on spatial and temporal summaries of complex datasets to identify events. This thesis makes the following major advances in bringing the field of climate analytics to the 21st century: First, we develop the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analytics) framework and enable heuristic-based analysis of O(10) TB datasets in 10s of minutes. Second, we introduce Deep Learning to the climate science community, and showcase state-of-the-art results in pattern classification, detection and segmentation. Our Deep Learning implementations have been scaled to the largest CPU- and GPU-based HPC systems in the world; these achievements being recognized by the ACM Gordon Bell Prize in 2018.
Powered by these new capabilities, we characterize changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers and extra-tropical cyclones in a variety of historical, reanalysis and climate change runs. Deep Learning-powered segmentation provides us with the capability to conduct precision analytics of precipitation \emph{conditional} on these weather patterns. We report on thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms behind changes in extreme precipitation.