Ki-ras mutation and p53 overexpression predict the clinical behavior of colorectal cancer: a Southwest Oncology Group study.
We assessed Ki-ras mutations by single-strand conformation polymorphism followed by DNA sequencing, p53 expression by immunohistochemistry, ploidy status, and S-phase fraction in 66 stage II and 163 stage III colon cancer patients enrolled on a randomized trial of surgery followed by observation or adjuvant levamisole or 5-fluorouracil (5FU) plus levamisole (Intergroup Trial 0035) to see whether these factors were independently associated with survival or with differential effects of adjuvant therapy. A Cox proportional hazards survival model was used to describe marker effects and therapy by marker interactions, with adjustment for the clinical covariates affecting survival. A Bonferroni adjustment was used to account for multiple testing. Mutation of the Ki-ras gene was found in 41% of the cancers and was associated with a poor prognosis in stage II but not stage III. In stage II, 7-year survival was 86% versus 58% in those with wild type versus Ki-ras mutations. After adjustment for treatment and clinical variables, the hazard ratio (HR) for death was 4.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-12.1 (P = 0.012). p53 overexpression was found in 63% of cancers and was associated with a favorable survival in stage III but not stage II. Seven-year survival in stage III was 56% with p53 overexpression versus 43% with no p53 expression (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.6; P = 0.012). Aneuploidy was more common in stage III than in stage II (66 versus 47%; P = 0.009) but was not independently related to survival in either group. The proliferative rate was greater in aneuploid than in diploid cancers but was not related to survival. There was no benefit of adjuvant therapy in stage II nor in any of the stage II subgroups defined by mutational status. In stage III, adjuvant therapy with 5FU plus levamisole improved 7-year survival in patients with wild-type Ki-ras (76 versus 44%; HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8) and in those without p53 overexpression (64 versus 26%; HR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.7). Adjuvant therapy did not benefit those with Ki-ras mutations or p53 overexpression. The effects of adjuvant therapy did not differ according to ploidy status or proliferative rate. Ki-ras mutation is a significant risk factor for death in stage II, and the absence of p53 expression is a significant risk factor for death in stage III colon cancer after adjustment for treatment and clinical covariates. Exploratory analyses suggest that patients with stage III colon cancer with wild-type Ki-ras or no p53 expression benefit from adjuvant 5FU plus levamisole, whereas those with Ki-ras mutations or p53 overexpression do not. An independent study will be required to determine whether response to adjuvant therapy in colon cancer depends on mutational status.