Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The increase in energy demand requires developing new storage systems and estimating their remaining energy over their lifetime. The remaining energy of these systems depends on many operating parameters, resulting in a large high-dimensional parameter space to explore. Testing cells exhaustively on a dense grid in the parameter space is prohibitively expensive. This is especially true with considerable cell-to-cell variability in performance, even under the same cycling conditions. Here, we develop a framework based on Gaussian processes, equipped with domain knowledge, and implement Bayesian optimization to explore the parameter space efficiently and quantify remaining energy using failure distributions. Bayesian optimization identifies future experiments that maximize information gain and minimize uncertainty. Experimental results show accurate remaining energy predictions with significantly fewer experiments. However, laboratory cycling conditions, including those in the literature, may not represent real-world cycling. We propose an approach based on laboratory results for predicting remaining energy under real-world cycling conditions.