Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Customer end-use load flexibility enhances grid reliability and infrastructure affordability, yet quantifying the value proposition for continuously price-responsive technologies remains challenging given uncertainties in rates, device costs, and performance capabilities. We analyzed customer economics for five residential and one commercial loadflexible technology—ranging from mature to developmental—addressing space/water heating, space cooling, pool circulation, and EV charging. Cost-effectiveness hinges on two drivers: initial investment and operating savings. We compiled comprehensive purchase and installation costs for each technology and determined annual electricity bill savings using a robust analysis framework. This framework considers hourly price design scenarios and resulting demand shifts away from high-priced hours, informed by technology field performance testing. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we allocated technologies to all eligible California customers in 2030. Customers are characterized by sector, utility, building type and size, load shape, and climate zone. We evaluated trade-offs between operating cost savings from dynamic electricity pricing and upfront technology acquisition and installation costs, leveraging annualized life-cycle cost savings, payback periods, and cost limit development. We quantified individual customer economics by each customer characteristic and technology. The paper illustrates ranges of resulting costs and benefits for customers and the State, discussing key drivers of each technology’s affordability. Understanding these drivers is essential for identifying barriers to adoption and successful market evolution. Our findings provide insights for dynamic tariff design, flexible technology financing, product design, and marketing.