UCSF

CDK4/6 inhibitors are oral agents inhibiting key molecules of the cell cycle regulation. In patients with endocrine receptor positive (ER+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2-) breast cancer, the combination of CDK4/6 inhibitors with endocrine therapy is an effective treatment in the metastatic setting. Now, two studies in the adjuvant setting - MonarchE (2 years of abemaciclib) and NATALEE (3 years of ribociclib) - report positive invasive disease-free survival. Here, we re-evaluate these seminal trials. First, an excess drop-out or loss-to-follow up occurred early in the control arms of both studies. Since both trials are open-label, there is concern that the patients who drop-out do not do so at random but based on socioeconomic factors and alternative options. Is it possible that the results merely appear favorable due to loss to follow up? Based on re-constructed Kaplan-Meier curves, we concluded the results of these studies remain fragile, being prone to informative censoring. Secondly, adverse events were notably higher in both trials, and some of them, like COVID-19 related deaths in NATALEE, raise serious concerns. Third, the potential costs associated with CDK4/6 inhibition given as adjuvant therapy are unprecedented. The NATALEE strategy, in particular, could affect up to 35 % of patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer, which is the cancer with the highest incidence worldwide. Without confirmatory data based on a placebo-controlled trial, or better identification of patients that would benefit from the addition of CDK4/6 inhibitors in the adjuvant setting, we argue against their routine use as adjuvant therapy in ER+ /HER2- early breast cancer.