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Open Access Publications from the University of California

The underestimated magnitude and decline trend in near-surface wind over China

  • Author(s): Jiang, Y
  • Xu, X
  • Liu, H
  • Dong, X
  • Wang, W
  • Jia, G
  • et al.

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© 2017 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. This study reports the magnitude, spatial pattern and temporal trend of near-surface wind speed (NWS) by comparing 20th century simulations in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and 3 (CMIP3) and the climate reanalyses with measurements at 563 weather stations in China over 1961–2005. Both CMIP5 and CMIP3 agree quite well with observations in reproducing the spatial pattern of annual mean NWS. CMIP5 models are superior to CMIP3 models in hindcasting the magnitude and spatial pattern of seasonal mean NWS, the temporal trend in annual and seasonal mean NWS. Although both CMIP3 and CMIP5 reproduced the decline trend in the annual and seasonal mean NWS, the hindcasted decline rate is smaller than observed decline trend by the magnitude of one order. The ensemble of optimal models that are better correlated to observations in both NWS and temporal trend possesses advantages over individual model hindcast and reanalyses. The reanalyzed data are not able to represent the observed either the spatial pattern or the decline trend of NWS. The analyses presented here reveal the uncertainties in the current wind field products including reanalyses and model outputs and highlight the benefits of parameterization development and increased horizontal resolution in the new-generation CMIP models.

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