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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Data-driven prediction of battery cycle life before capacity degradation

  • Author(s): Severson, KA
  • Attia, PM
  • Jin, N
  • Perkins, N
  • Jiang, B
  • Yang, Z
  • Chen, MH
  • Aykol, M
  • Herring, PK
  • Fraggedakis, D
  • Bazant, MZ
  • Harris, SJ
  • Chueh, WC
  • Braatz, RD
  • et al.

Accurately predicting the lifetime of complex, nonlinear systems such as lithium-ion batteries is critical for accelerating technology development. However, diverse aging mechanisms, significant device variability and dynamic operating conditions have remained major challenges. We generate a comprehensive dataset consisting of 124 commercial lithium iron phosphate/graphite cells cycled under fast-charging conditions, with widely varying cycle lives ranging from 150 to 2,300 cycles. Using discharge voltage curves from early cycles yet to exhibit capacity degradation, we apply machine-learning tools to both predict and classify cells by cycle life. Our best models achieve 9.1% test error for quantitatively predicting cycle life using the first 100 cycles (exhibiting a median increase of 0.2% from initial capacity) and 4.9% test error using the first 5 cycles for classifying cycle life into two groups. This work highlights the promise of combining deliberate data generation with data-driven modelling to predict the behaviour of complex dynamical systems.

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