Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Misinformation, and its impact on society, has become anincreasingly topical field of study of late. A body of literatureexists that suggests misinformation can retain an influenceover beliefs despite subsequent retraction, known as theContinued Influence Effect (CIE). Researchers have arguedthis to be irrational. However, we show using a Bayesianformalism why this argument is overly assumptive, pointingto (previously overlooked) considerations of reliability of, anddependence between, misinforming and retracting sources.We demonstrate that lay reasoners intuitively endorseassumptions that demarcate CIE as a rational process, basedon the fact misinformation precedes its retraction. Moreover,despite using established CIE materials, we further upturn theapplecart by finding participants show CIE, and appropriatelypenalize the reliabilities of contradicting sources.