Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

We test whether the support one holds about an event is influenced by other hypotheses. We addressed this by examining context effects in subjective probabilities (SPs) when forecasting NCAA men's basketball team rankings. A challenge in investigating context effects with naturalistic stimuli is the need to model the different representations of the options. To do so, we adapted the Spatial Arrangement method to capture individual representations and developed an algorithm to select stimuli. We asked participants steeped in basketball knowledge to create spatial maps for 50 teams. They were then presented with customized triplets of teams and asked to estimate their SP that one team would outrank the others. The study uncovered context effects in SPs, and moderators of the effects. Our findings suggest that similar cognitive processes may govern the construction of belief and preference and highlight the importance of modeling mental representations to understand forecasting scenarios.