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Do Simple Probability Judgments Rely on Integer Approximation?

Abstract

A great deal of research has been conducted on how humansreason about probability, yet it remains unknown what mentalcomputations support this ability. Research on thedevelopment of the Approximate Number Sense (ANS) hasshown that performance in a magnitude (i.e., estimations ofintegers) discrimination task is well fit by a psychophysicalmodel (Halberda & Feigenson, 2008). Whether or notestimations of integers plays a role in probability judgmentshas yet to be investigated. In the present study we use datafrom two adult experiments as well as results fromcomparisons of two computational models to investigate thepotential relationship between the ANS and probabilityjudgments.

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