Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Singular causation queries require an assessment of whethera singular co-occurrence of two events c and e was causal orsimply coincidental. The current study builds on our previ-ous research (Stephan & Waldmann, 2018) in which we pro-posed a computational model of singular causation judgments.The model highlights that singular causation judgments needto take into account the power of the target cause C and ofalternative causes A, as well as the possibility of preemption.What was missing was a detailed model allowing us to esti-mate the probability of preemption of a target cause by thealternative causes. The present research fills this gap by elab-orating the temporal assumptions that might enter assessmentsof singular causation. We focus on assumptions about tempo-ral precedence between target and alternative causes, with aspecific focus on assumptions about causal latency. We reportthe results of two new experiments supporting the model.