Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Predicting the actions and reactions of others is crucial to suc- cessful social interaction. When deciding whether to bluff in a game of poker, we consider the chances that the other players will fold or continue to play and unmask our bluff. When deciding whether to tell our boss that their plans are likely to have adverse effects, we consider a range of reac- tions, from being grateful for our honesty to being dismissed out of spite. Such predictions are highly uncertain and com- plex, not least because the other's (re)actions usually result from them making equally complex and uncertain inferences about us. Nevertheless, we are often remarkably successful – although sometimes utterly wrong – in our social inferences. How do we explain these successes and failures?