Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Complex uncertainty expressions such as probably likely andcertainly possible naturally occur in everyday conversations.However, they received much less attention in the literaturethan simple ones. We propose a probabilistic model of the useand interpretation of complex uncertainty expressions based onthe assumption that their predominant function is to communi-cate factual information about the world, and that further layersof uncertainty are pragmatically inferred. We collected empir-ical data on the use and interpretation of these expressions anduse it for detailed model criticism.