Complex uncertainty expressions such as probably likely andcertainly possible naturally occur in everyday conversations.However, they received much less attention in the literaturethan simple ones. We propose a probabilistic model of the useand interpretation of complex uncertainty expressions based onthe assumption that their predominant function is to communi-cate factual information about the world, and that further layersof uncertainty are pragmatically inferred. We collected empir-ical data on the use and interpretation of these expressions anduse it for detailed model criticism.
