Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

We study abductive, causal, and non-causal conditionals inindicative and counterfactual formulations using probabilis-tic truth table tasks under incomplete probabilistic knowledge(N = 80). We frame the task as a probability-logical inferenceproblem. The most frequently observed response type acrossall conditions was a class of conditional event interpretationsof conditionals; it was followed by conjunction interpreta-tions. An interesting minority of participants neglected someof the relevant imprecision involved in the premises when in-ferring lower or upper probability bounds on the target con-ditional/counterfactual (“halfway responses”). We discuss theresults in the light of coherence-based probability logic and thenew paradigm psychology of reasoning