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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Predictors of Mortality in Adult Population Admitted with COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study from New York City


Introduction: Rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States, especially in New York City (NYC), led to a tremendous increase in hospitalizations and mortality. There is very limited data available that associates outcomes during hospitalization in patients with COVID-19.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we reviewed the health records of patients with COVID-19 who were admitted from March 9–April 9, 2020, to a community hospital in NYC. Subjects with confirmed reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of the nasopharyngeal swab for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) were included. We collected data related to demographics, laboratory results, and outcome of hospitalization. Outcome was measured based on whether the patient was discharged home or died during hospitalization.

Results: There were 888 consecutive admissions with COVID-19 during the study period, of which 513 were excluded with pending outcome or incomplete information. We included a total of 375 patients in the study, of whom 215 (57%) survived and 160 (43%) died during hospitalization. The majority of patients were male (63%) and of Hispanic origin (66%) followed by Blacks (25%), and others (9%). Hypertension (60%) stands out to be the most common comorbidity followed by diabetes mellitus (47%), cardiovascular disease (17%), chronic kidney disease (17%), and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (9%). On multiple regression analysis, increasing odds of mortality during hospitalization was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.06 per year increase; p < 0.0001), admission D-dimer more than 1000 nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL) (OR 3.16; 95% CI, 1.75-5.73; p<0.0001), admission C-reactive protein (CRP) levels of more than 200 milligrams per liter  (mg/L) (OR 2.43; 95% CI, 1.36-4.34; p = 0.0028), and admission lymphopenia (OR 2.63; CI, 1.47-4.69; p 0.0010).

Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study originating in NYC, older age, admission levels of D-dimer of more than 1000 ng/mL, CRP of more than 200 mg/L and lymphopenia were associated with mortality in individuals hospitalized for COVID-19. We recommend using these risk factors on admission to triage patients to critical care units or surge units to maximize the use of surge capacity beds.

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